Currie Predicts the Oscars

Currie Predicts the Oscars

Lincoln Currie, Arts and Entertainment Editor

Lincoln Currie’s Oscar Breakdown:

Preface: This is not a complete guide, only a guide to the awards I feel I could judge best.

Best Picture:

Black Panther


Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

A Star is Born


Who wins?

Roma takes the big prize this year. Astoundingly, a foreign film has never won the top prize at the Oscars; that will change today. The last time I was this confident about a Best Picture prediction was The Artist.

My Favorite:

Writing, acting, direction, camerawork, Roma has it all. The movie advances the theme of family in a touching way. There is a plot to the movie, but that wasn’t the main point for me.

Other Thoughts:

While Vice will not be taking home the crown this year, it was hilarious and anyone who liked The Big Short should love McKay’s latest project. A Star is Born certainly does not tell a new story, but rather executes the old story to perfection.

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Who wins?

Rami Malek, who did a solid job portraying Freddie Mercury, and has won all the awards that Best Actor winners typically get before taking home the big prize (Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA).

My Favorite:

I liked Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born. Sure, the self-destructive star is a cliche at this point, but I think he played the role really well, so get over it. His performance reminded me of Nicholas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas, another great performance.

Other Thoughts:

I’m happy that Willem Dafoe is finally getting nominated for leading role this year. I’m a big fan of his work, especially in Mississippi Burning. Also, kudos to Viggo Mortensen on another stellar performance. Those who saw Green Book and liked Tony Lip should watch Eastern Promises.

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Who wins?

The Academy has a tendency to give somebody a trophy when it is a person’s “turn.” It is Glenn Close’s turn this year. She’s got pedigree, she’s got previous nominations; this is her moment.

My Favorite:

The way Glenn Close is able to switch between emotional states in The Wife was terrifying. This is her best work since her trademark role in Fatal Attraction, and I am cheering for her all the way. Just give her the trophy already!

Other Thoughts:
A little change in Melissa McCarthy’s typical role paid off for her, and she showed that she can do more than just Megan from Bridesmaids. Also, what a great debut for Lady Gaga! Maybe this means more acting for her in the future. Maybe this is a one time deal. Either way, her ending song in A Star is Born was my favorite movie scene this year. And congratulations to Yalitza Aparicio on a beautiful job in Roma, she drives the movie.

Best Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

Who wins?

Cuarón, next.

My favorite:

Cuarón said that Roma has a deep connection to his childhood and he has been thinking about making the film for a long time now. Gravity was, in my opinion, an ok movie; Roma is his masterpiece.

Other Thoughts:

I like McKay’s funny and informative style and want to see more of it.

Best Original Screenplay:

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Alfonso Caurón, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

Who wins?

The Favourite has all the classic British wit and seems to be the front runner, but Green Book should not be counted out.

My Favourite:

The Favourite was a very British movie. The dialogue was smart and funny but did not make me laugh out loud.

Other Thoughts:

I understand Spanish pretty well, but I don’t feel that I grasp the language well enough to judge the writing of Roma effectively.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

David Rabinowitz, Spike Lee, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Eric Rothe, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters, A Star is Born

Who Wins?

BlacKkKlansman is coming off a BAFTA win, adding to Golden Globe and WGA nominations. However, this is one of the picks I’m less confident about.

My Favorite:

BlacKkKlansman exceeded my expectations. The plot was interesting, but I also liked the comedic elements of the movie, especially the not-so-subtle references to modern politics.

Other Thoughts:

I like that the Coen brothers tried something new with The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. Perhaps the short story format will catch on.

Best Supporting Actor:

MahershalaAli, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Who Wins?

Mahershala Ali has won nearly every major award for this role; it would be a surprise to see anybody but him collecting a trophy in this category tonight.

My Favorite:

Richard E. Grant seems to be enjoying the spotlight, and I really enjoyed the charm that he added to Can You Ever Forgive Me? Grant’s chemistry with McCarthy was fun to watch.

Other Thoughts:

Pretty tough competition this year. It is not often that you see a year where all the nominees feel like they could have been a winner in a less competitive year.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Who wins?

Rachel Weisz is another pick about which I have trepidation. She is competing primarily with Regina King, who missed out on a SAG nomination this year. It is not typical that an actress wins Best Supporting Actress without a SAG nomination.

My Favorite:

I liked Marina de Tavira in Roma. She played a role that contrasted well with Aparicio’s character, Cleo.

Other Thoughts:

I hope Amy Adams gets gold one of these years. It’d be a shame to watch such a talented and prolific actress go her whole career without winning.